安倍访华，中日内生动力远超外力推动

Abe's visit to China, China and Japan's vividness far exceeds external push
2018年10月26日
26 October 2018

Is the driving force of improvement in China-Japan ties mainly from the pressure caused by the trade war launched by Washington? When Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe started his official visit to China on Thursday, many international media discussed this perspective.

中日改善关系的动力主要来自于华盛顿贸易战造成的压力吗？在日本首相安倍晋三星期四开始对华正式访问的时候，很多国际媒体的评论涉及了这个角度。

Washington is sparing no effort in pressing China in the trade war. Meanwhile, it also showed no trace of politeness toward Japan. This will definitely boost China and Japan's willingness to cooperate in the short term.

华盛顿把对华贸易战往极致打，同时对日本也不客气，这肯定会增加中日扩大合作的短期意愿。

Though the US is quite an influential factor in China-Japan ties, the effect is limited. If Beijing and Tokyo intend to plan their future bilateral relationship based on Washington's attitude, they will only get lost.

但是美国因素在中日关系中虽颇具影响力，同时变化又是有限的。如果北京和东京用卜算华盛顿的态度来设计两国改善关系的进程，必将迷失方向。

The long-term impetus for improving China-Japan relations must be found in the two countries. The establishment of stable and mutually beneficial ties will have much to gain and nothing to lose for both sides.

中日改善关系的长期动力必须从两国之间去寻找，双方建立稳定的战略互惠关系，对两国有百益而无一害。

Even for the Tokyo-Washington relationship, good Sino-US ties will increase Japan's initiative in its alliance with the US, creating a certain advantage in the diplomacy of balance between China and the US instead of being enslaved to Washington for picking the US side.

即使对日美关系来说，良好的中日关系也会增加日本在日美同盟中的主动性，使之在美中之间获得“平衡外交”的某种优势，而不是因倒向华盛顿置自己于受制于对方的战略被动中。

There can be many disputes among neighboring countries, but there are also quite a few opportunities for cooperation. Enormous diplomatic resources would have to be consumed by all parties involved if they are difficult with surrounding nations.

邻国纠纷多，合作的机会也多。纵观世界，邻国闹别扭的，彼此都会消耗大量外交资源，把好处让别的国家占了去。

In the past few years, the deterioration of China-Japan relations has generated enormous losses for both societies. The benefits that will be brought about by rapprochement between the two countries are beyond doubt.

过去几年中日关系恶化对两国利益的消耗给双方社会都留下深刻印象，两国关系重回正轨的好处清晰可见。中日只要保持“和”，就能自然产生收益。

Japan is an ally of the US. American troops are stationed on Japanese soil. Gaining more diplomatic independence is one of Japan's core interests. As Washington is more eager to contain a rising China, it hopes to garner more support from Tokyo to pressure China. It tests Japan's diplomatic independence whether its China policy can be shielded from the influence of Washington.

日本是美国盟友，美在日本驻有军队，扩大日本外交的独立性无疑是日本的核心利益之一。随着华盛顿遏制中国思维的不断抬头，美国方面希望东京配合对华施压的意愿将上升，日本能否让其对华政策少受华盛顿的影响，甚至摆脱这种影响，将是其外交独立性的试金石。

Some analysts worry that Tokyo will use its thawing ties with Beijing as a bargaining chip when dealing with Washington and that Tokyo's posture toward Beijing will change as Washington sways.

确实有一些人担心，日本对华态度这两年转热，有一些因应特朗普强硬政策的考虑，是要把回暖的中日关系当作牵制华盛顿的牌来打。那些人怀疑东京的对华思维有短期性，不稳固，一旦美国因素生变，东京的态度就会跟着变。

Such diplomatic balancing exists in all trilateral relations. China-Japan relations will continue to be defined with positive interactions between the two sides, and it is completely possible that their relations can transcend the US influence, a situation that benefits both. It is expected that Japan will deliver more political wisdom and courage.

不能不说，外交的“三角关系”无处不在。中日关系还需要两国通过积极互动不断塑造，中日两国对彼此关系的决定力超过美国的影响力是完全现实的，这种局面对双方最有利，因此值得两国共同争取。为此，我们期待着日本方面未来拿出更多的政治智慧和勇气。

The ideological competition between China and Japan is not as intense as that between China and the US.

要看到，中日意识形态之争并没有中美那么尖锐。

Despite their close geographic distance, their security concerns are not contradictory from a long-term perspective. Therefore they can negotiate and direct their security concerns in the same direction. The two will find multiple incentives to become strategic partners.

中日虽然距离更近，但两国的安全担忧从长远看不是针锋相对的，因此双方的安全关切可以通过协调安排相向而行。从21世纪的大趋势看，中日成为战略伙伴是受到诸多条件鼓励的。

In the past three decades, China and Japan have experienced ups and downs and have accumulated experiences and lessons.

在过去二三十年里，中日之间不断磨合，两国关系有过大起大落，相互认识经历了洗礼，经验和教训都有所积累。

The two countries should construct a more stable psychological framework to bolster friendly cooperation and dilute disputes.

两国应当借这一轮改善关系构建起中日长期友好合作更加稳定的心理和机制框架，让双方关系中看上去的某些“死结”在时间中逐渐化解。

                                                                            （编辑：丁诗慧）